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Fun with Numbers - UTMB 2018 and ITRA Scores

T8 had so much time on our hands when the #UTMB TV broadcasts finished that we decided to plot finishing times to see if your #ITRA score was a good predictor.

1. Unsurprisingly, ITRA scores are a good predictor of UTMB finishing times, with an r-score of -0.78. This means it’s a negative and strong correlation eg. high ITRA = low finishing time.
2. Being male or female doesn’t really affect your ITRA predicted time, however, elite women tend to go a bit faster than ITRA-equivalent men.
3. Using a linear regression analysis, your predicted UTMB 2018 time would be 21:36 for a 900 ITRA runner, but adding 5:19 for each 100 ITRA points below. For example, a 500 point runner could expect 21:36 + 4 x 5:19 = 42:53hr.


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